KALBA
2025 05 16
Rizika ir neapibr臈啪tumas komunikuojant apie politik膮
Kaip geriausia atsi啪velgti 寞 rizik膮 ir neapibr臈啪tum膮 m奴s懦 sprendimuose d臈l pinig懦 politikos ir m奴s懦 komunikacijoje yra vienas svarbiausi懦 m奴s懦 vykdomo pinig懦 politikos strategijos vertinimo klausim懦,聽鈥� pa啪ymi vyriausiasis ekonomistas Philipas R. Lane'as.
Skaityti kalb膮
KALBA
2025 05 15
Stabilumas pasaulini懦 poky膷i懦 akivaizdoje
Pasaulio susiskaidymas, prekybos santyki懦 寞tampa ir kredito rizika didina finans懦 rinkos kintamum膮 ir pa啪eid啪iamum膮, 鈥� pa啪ymi pirmininko pavaduotojas Luisas de Guindosas, dalyvaudamas ISDA metiniame visuotiniame susirinkime. Stiprios prie啪i奴ros ir reguliavimo sistemos yra labai svarbios siekiant i拧saugoti stabilum膮.
Skaityti kalb膮
ECB TINKLARA艩TIS
2025 05 08
U啪sienie膷iai darbuotojai skatina ekonomikos augim膮
U啪sienie膷iams darbuotojams tenka vis svarbesnis vaidmuo euro zonos darbo rinkose. ECB tinklara拧tyje daroma i拧vada, kad u啪sienie膷i懦 darbuotoj懦 antpl奴dis kelerius pastaruosius metus skatino spart懦 ekonomikos augim膮.
Skaityti ECB tinklara拧膷io 寞ra拧膮- 16 May 2025
- GOVERNING COUNCIL DECISIONS - OTHER DECISIONSEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +
- 13 May 2025
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +Annexes
- 13 May 2025
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
- 6 May 2025
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +Annexes
- 6 May 2025
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
- 6 May 2025
- MFI INTEREST RATE STATISTICS
- 5 May 2025
- PRESS RELEASEAnnexes
- 5 May 2025
- PRESS RELEASE
- 16 May 2025
- Remarks by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Second Thomas Laubach Research Conference
- 15 May 2025
- Speech by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) Annual General Meeting
- 15 May 2025
- Speech by Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the France Payments Forum event 鈥淒igital euro and the future of payments in Europe鈥�
- 10 May 2025
- Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at Hoover Monetary Policy Conference 鈥淔inishing the Job and New Challenges鈥�, Stanford University
- 29 April 2025
- Speech by Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the conference on 鈥淧olicy challenges in a fragmenting world: Global trade, exchange rates, and capital flow鈥� organised by the Bank for International Settlements, the Bank of England, the ECB and the International Monetary Fund
- 18 May 2025
- Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Marie-Pierre Gr枚ndahl on 8 May 2025
- 3 May 2025
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Jakob Zirm on 28 April 2025
- 24 March 2025
- Interview with Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Andr茅s Stumpf
- 16 March 2025
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Jon Ihle
- 7 March 2025
- Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Patricia Hecht and Beate Willms on 5 February 2025
- 8 May 2025
- Foreign workers play an increasingly important role in the euro area labour markets. This ECB blog analyses the effects migrants had on growth across the largest countries in recent years. It also discusses changing labour market participation patterns among foreign workers.Details
- JEL Code
- J10 : Labor and Demographic Economics鈫扗emographic Economics鈫扜eneral
- 5 May 2025
- Lasting high energy prices are putting pressure on industries across Europe. This is hitting some regions, such as southern Germany, the Ruhr and northern Italy, harder than others. The ECB Blog examines the implications for employment.Details
- JEL Code
- J60 : Labor and Demographic Economics鈫扢obility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers鈫扜eneral
Q40 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics鈫扙nergy鈫扜eneral
- 30 April 2025
- The ECB Blog explores how European consumers react to the prospect of higher trade tariffs. It finds that many are very willing to switch away from US products.Details
- JEL Code
- F10 : International Economics鈫扵rade鈫扜eneral
- 29 April 2025
- At the end of 2024 鈥� after nearly five years of operations, more than 110, 000 bond market transactions and peak holdings of 鈧�1.7 trillion 鈥� reinvestments under the pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) came to an end. This blog post takes stock and highlights some aspects of PEPP implementation in light of the data we now make publicly available.Details
- JEL Code
- E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics鈫扢onetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit鈫扖entral Banks and Their Policies
- 25 April 2025
- One year after its announcement, the new operational framework is working as intended. Euro area banks have adapted to declining central bank reserves as the Eurosystem's balance sheet is normalising. The ECB Blog assesses how banks and money markets cope with the new environment.Details
- JEL Code
- E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics鈫扢onetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit鈫扢oney Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics鈫扢onetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit鈫扖entral Banks and Their Policies
E41 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics鈫扢oney and Interest Rates鈫扗emand for Money
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics鈫扢onetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit鈫扢onetary Policy
ESTR : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
- 16 May 2025
- LETTERS TO MEPS
- 14 May 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3055Details
- Abstract
- Central banks increasingly act as market-makers-of-last-resort, yet the impact and exit of such interventions remain poorly understood. Using euro-area data, we analyze the cycle of market freeze, intervention, and exit in short-term debt markets. A run on money market funds (MMFs) triggered a collapse in these markets in March 2020. Firms replaced only 27% of lost funding through credit lines. The 21点算牌公式 intervened, fully replacing MMFs for some firms and allowing them to issue more debt at lower rates and longer maturities. After the ECB鈥檚 exit, more-exposed firms faced higher yields (+20.2 bps), reduced MMF investments, and fewer new relationships. Credit line take-up did not materially change post-exit.
- JEL Code
- G11 : Financial Economics鈫扜eneral Financial Markets鈫扨ortfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G23 : Financial Economics鈫扚inancial Institutions and Services鈫扤on-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
G32 : Financial Economics鈫扖orporate Finance and Governance鈫扚inancing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics鈫扢onetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
- 12 May 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3054Details
- Abstract
- We introduce an information provision experiment into a standard dynamic rational inattention model. We derive analytical results about how the treatment effect varies with characteristics of the environment and the individual. We use these results to discuss findings in the empirical literature on information provision experiments that can be explained by rational inattention of survey respondents and what this interpretation implies about behavior outside the survey.
- JEL Code
- D8 : Microeconomics鈫扞nformation, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
D9 : Microeconomics鈫扞ntertemporal Choice
E7 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
- 8 May 2025
- LEGAL ACT
- 8 May 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3053Details
- Abstract
- I assess the impact of the recent hike in bank lending rates on euro area retail borrowers using a novel microsimulation framework that updates household-level data of a recent representative survey with up-to-date macro-financial information. The key novelty is that existing mortgages are gradually repaid, and new ones are extended, a feature necessary for medium-term simulations in a period of sizable credit growth. Since lending rates have increased, debt servicing has become more demanding, and the simulated share of distressed loans has increased. Effects are stronger for adjustable-rate mortgages, and especially for the most recent among them, but are present in all portfolios.
- JEL Code
- C1 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods鈫扙conometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
G2 : Financial Economics鈫扚inancial Institutions and Services
G51 : Financial Economics
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics鈫扢onetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit鈫扢onetary Policy
- 7 May 2025
- CONSULTATION RESPONSE
- 6 May 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3052Details
- Abstract
- We propose a novel empirical structural inflation model that captures non-linear shock transmission using a Bayesian machine learning framework that combines VARs with non-linear structural factor models. Unlike traditional linear models, our approach allows for non-linear effects at all impulse response horizons. Identification is achieved via sign, zero, and magnitude restrictions within the factor model. Applying our method to euro area energy shocks, we find that inflation reacts disproportionately to large shocks, while small shocks trigger no significant response. These non-linearities are present along the pricing chain, more pronounced upstream and gradually attenuating downstream.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics鈫扨rices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles鈫扨rice Level, Inflation, Deflation
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods鈫扢ultiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables鈫扵ime-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
C38 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods鈫扢ultiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables鈫扖lassification Methods, Cluster Analysis, Principal Components, Factor Models
Q43 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics鈫扙nergy鈫扙nergy and the Macroeconomy
- 6 May 2025
- OTHER PUBLICATIONEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +
- 5 May 2025
- LEGAL ACT
- 2 May 2025
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN
- 2 May 2025
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 3, 2025Details
- Abstract
- The statistical in-house credit assessment systems (S-ICASs) of the national central banks of the euro area are quantitative systems which can assess the credit quality of a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises in an automated manner. These can help broaden the set of eligible credit claims accepted as collateral in monetary policy operations. The acceptance of S-ICASs in the general collateral framework as of 2026 is based on a newly developed harmonised framework, enhancing risk efficiency, addressing level-playing-field considerations and improving crisis preparedness within the Eurosystem.
- JEL Code
- E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics鈫扢onetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit鈫扖entral Banks and Their Policies
E61 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics鈫扢acroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook鈫扨olicy Objectives, Policy Designs and Consistency, Policy Coordination
G01 : Financial Economics鈫扜eneral鈫扚inancial Crises
- 2 May 2025
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 3, 2025Details
- Abstract
- The start of Russia鈥檚 war on Ukraine in early 2022 led to major errors in inflation and GDP growth forecasts from December 2021 onwards. By the end of 2022 inflation projections were off by 8 percentage points and GDP projections by nearly 1 percentage point. Using the ECB-BASE model, this study finds that about 70% of the inflation error stemmed from unexpected energy and food price shocks. Energy prices were the main drivers in 2022, while food prices gained influence in 2023. Fiscal policies initially eased inflation but later this effect was reversed. Tighter financial conditions impacted GDP in 2023 but had little immediate effect on inflation. Nevertheless, monetary policy played a key role, preventing inflation from rising by up to 2 percentage points in a worst-case scenario. The model underestimated second-round effects, wage-price linkages and labour hoarding. These findings highlight the importance of incorporating non-linear price pass-through effects and labour market dynamics into macroeconomic forecasting models.
- JEL Code
- C5 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods鈫扙conometric Modeling
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics鈫扨rices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles鈫扚orecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics鈫扢onetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
E6 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics鈫扢acroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
- 2 May 2025
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 3, 2025Details
- Abstract
- Average hours worked (AHW) have been declining in recent years, falling particularly strongly during the pandemic before returning to trend. This box examines the key drivers behind the decline in AHW, with two factors playing a dominant role. First, the proportion of employees working zero hours during the reference week spiked during the pandemic 鈥� owing to the closure of businesses and higher sick leave rates 鈥� and recovered only slowly. Second, the proportion of employees working very long hours has continued to fall over the past decade.
- JEL Code
- J22 : Labor and Demographic Economics鈫扗emand and Supply of Labor鈫扵ime Allocation and Labor Supply
- 2 May 2025
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 3, 2025Details
- Abstract
- This box examines the effects of the tariffs imposed by the first Trump Administration in 2018. It shows that there was a significant decline in Chinese exports to the United States. Despite the potential for increased competitiveness, the euro area did not increase its market share in the United States. Chinese exports found alternative destinations, including South and South-East Asia and the euro area. The analysis highlights the potential channels through which US tariffs on Chinese goods could affect the euro area.
- JEL Code
- F13 : International Economics鈫扵rade鈫扵rade Policy, International Trade Organizations
F14 : International Economics鈫扵rade鈫扙mpirical Studies of Trade
- 2 May 2025
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 3, 2025Details
- Abstract
- This box examines the drivers behind the prolonged resilience of US corporate bond spreads, prior to their recent abrupt widening, in order to better understand the risks of decompression. The previous compression was largely supported by a strong risk appetite and a compositional shift in bond issuance toward higher-quality firms. However, the need to refinance maturing debt in a high-interest rate environment 鈥� combined with a rapidly deteriorating risk sentiment 鈥� exposes US corporates to heightened vulnerability and increases their sensitivity to adverse shocks.
- JEL Code
- G12 : Financial Economics鈫扜eneral Financial Markets鈫扐sset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G15 : Financial Economics鈫扜eneral Financial Markets鈫扞nternational Financial Markets
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics鈫扢oney and Interest Rates鈫扚inancial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- 2 May 2025
- SURVEY ON CREDIT TERMS AND CONDITIONS IN EURO-DENOMINATED SECURITIES FINANCING AND OTC DERIVATIVES MARKETSAnnexes
- 2 May 2025
- SURVEY ON CREDIT TERMS AND CONDITIONS IN EURO-DENOMINATED SECURITIES FINANCING AND OTC DERIVATIVES MARKETS
- 30 April 2025
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 3, 2025Details
- Abstract
- This article analyses the medium-term fiscal-structural plans that euro area countries have submitted under the revised Stability and Growth Pact. It discusses the fiscal and economic implications of this framework over the short and medium term, also factoring in 鈥� on a preliminary basis and acknowledging the major uncertainty ahead 鈥� the recent proposal by the European Commission to activate the national escape clause in the Stability and Growth Pact in a coordinated manner. The EU鈥檚 new economic governance framework builds on the premise that fiscal sustainability, reforms and investment are mutually reinforcing and should be fostered as part of an integrated approach. The article emphasises the importance of launching the new framework effectively and ensuring appropriate monitoring of reform and investment commitments in the plans. This is also necessary to ensure that additional spending on defence does not endanger fiscal sustainability in the medium term.
- JEL Code
- H11 : Public Economics鈫扴tructure and Scope of Government鈫扴tructure, Scope, and Performance of Government
H50 : Public Economics鈫扤ational Government Expenditures and Related Policies鈫扜eneral
H54 : Public Economics鈫扤ational Government Expenditures and Related Policies鈫扞nfrastructures, Other Public Investment and Capital Stock
H60 : Public Economics鈫扤ational Budget, Deficit, and Debt鈫扜eneral
H68 : Public Economics鈫扤ational Budget, Deficit, and Debt鈫扚orecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
- 30 April 2025
- EURO MONEY MARKET
- 29 April 2025
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 3, 2025Details
- Abstract
- This box explores the newly available five-year-ahead inflation expectations collected in the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey (CES). While consumers鈥� beliefs about longer-term inflation expectations are characterised by substantial heterogeneity and dispersion, the median five-year-ahead expectations have been close to the ECB's 2% inflation target since September 2024. This relative stability contrasts with more variable one-year and three-year expectations, which have been more sensitive to actual changes in inflation. More recent CES data also suggest an increasing concentration of five-year expectations consistent with the ECB鈥檚 target, indicating stronger consumer confidence in the ECB鈥檚 ability to maintain price stability, as realised inflation has returned to values closer to 2%. Taken together, our analysis supports the value of longer-term expectations for evaluating the anchoring of consumer inflation expectations.
- JEL Code
- D84 : Microeconomics鈫扞nformation, Knowledge, and Uncertainty鈫扙xpectations, Speculations
- 29 April 2025
- RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 130Details
- Abstract
- The recent surge in inflation has led to a significant increase in the frequency of price changes, making prices more flexible. Conventional models assume a constant price change frequency, but in state-dependent models the frequency varies with economic conditions. Price flexibility has an impact on the effectiveness of monetary policy. In high inflation periods, frequent price changes make monetary policy more effective in reducing inflation with less impact on economic activity. Therefore, monetary policy should be more aggressive during such periods to stabilise prices efficiently. This approach allows central banks to achieve a 鈥渟oft landing鈥� with less impact on activity. Overall, central banks should adjust their strategies based on the inflation environment to optimise economic outcomes.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics鈫扨rices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles鈫扨rice Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics鈫扨rices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles鈫払usiness Fluctuations, Cycles
Pal奴kan懦 normos
| Ind臈li懦 galimyb臈 | 2,25 % |
| Pagrindin臈s refinansavimo operacijos (fiksuotosios pal奴kan懦 normos) | 2,40 % |
| Ribinio skolinimosi galimyb臈 | 2,65 % |
Infliacijos lygis
Daugiau apie infliacij膮Valiut懦 kursai
| USD | US dollar | 1.1194 | |
| JPY | Japanese yen | 163.05 | |
| GBP | Pound sterling | 0.84270 | |
| CHF | Swiss franc | 0.9381 |
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