Π‘ΡΠ΄ΡΡΠΆΠ°Π½ΠΈΠ΅ΡΠΎ Π½Π΅ Π΅ Π½Π°Π»ΠΈΡΠ½ΠΎ Π½Π° Π±ΡΠ»Π³Π°ΡΡΠΊΠΈ Π΅Π·ΠΈΠΊ.
Harri Turunen
- 21 September 2021
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 267Details
- Abstract
- This paper provides an assessment of the macroeconomic models regularly used for forecasting and policy analysis in the Eurosystem. These include semi-structural, structural and time-series models covering specific jurisdictions and the euro area within a closed economy, small open economy, multi-country or global setting. Models are used as analytical frameworks for building baseline projections and for supporting the preparation of monetary policy decisions. The paper delivers four main contributions. First, it provides a survey of the macroeconomic modelling portfolios currently used or under development within the Eurosystem. Second, it explores the analytical gaps in the Eurosystem models and investigates the scope for further enhancement of the main projection and policy models, and the creation of new models. Third, it reviews current practices in model-based analysis for monetary policy preparation and forecasting and provides recommendations and suggestions for improvement. Finally, it reviews existing cooperation modalities on model development and proposes alternative sourcing and organisational strategies to remedy any knowledge or analytical gaps identified.
- JEL Code
- C5 : Mathematical and Quantitative MethodsβEconometric Modeling
E47 : Macroeconomics and Monetary EconomicsβMoney and Interest RatesβForecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary EconomicsβMonetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and CreditβMonetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary EconomicsβMonetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and CreditβCentral Banks and Their Policies
F4 : International EconomicsβMacroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance